Brexit, monetary policy, and trade wars forecast to keep GBP/EUR exchange rate volatile

graficaMarch was a tough month for the pound Sterling to euro exchange rate. The pairing tumbled towards the end of February, hitting its lowest levels in three months, but the last few weeks saw Sterling slowly recovering its losses.

Things really picked up at the end of March, when the UK and EU surprised markets by publishing a joint draft Brexit agreement, and UK wage growth and employment data beat forecasts, improving the outlook for the UK’s consumer-driven economy.

But what does the future hold for GBP/EUR?

April starts with the next round of UK Markit PMIs, which measure activity in the manufacturing, construction and services sectors.

The latter is the most important, as it accounts for over 75% of the UK’s total economic output each year. Weakness in the services PMI would undermine the GBP/EUR exchange rate, while strength here would help to alleviate fears that the UK economy is slowing.

The month closes with the first official estimate of growth during the first quarter of 2018, which could have a significant impact upon the pound, as the economy has been trudging along since Brexit, walking a fine line between recovery and weakness.

Of course, no forecast for the pound would be complete without a mention of Brexit. Negotiations regarding trade could begin in April, and this could bring a whole host of new issues regarding the kind of relationship the UK has with the EU once Brexit is completed.

As well as all the usual monthly data set for release from the Eurozone during April, politics could play a large part in deciding EUR movement over the coming weeks.

The evolving trade dispute between the US and the European Union is likely to have an impact upon exchange rates, after the former levied tariffs on steel and aluminium imports as part of President Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda.

If it seems that the EU will be forced to retaliate with tariffs of its own, fears that the world is on the brink of a global trade war will likely weigh on the euro.

Rounding off the month will be the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting concluding on 26th April.

The Eurozone economy continues to send strong signals, but consumer price growth remains firmly below the ECB’s target of just below 2%. The euro is therefore likely to weaken if policymakers conclude that inflation isn’t showing any signs of picking up, while suggestions that further price growth is in the pipeline would boost EUR exchange rates.

Barring a fleeting spike higher, the GBP/EUR exchange rate is currently trending around its highest levels since mid-June 2017. Will Brexit positivity and the hopes of monetary tightening in May be enough to push it even higher?

Delays to Brexit talks unsettle pound Sterling

Staying on top of the latest currency news can help you time your transfers more effectively, so find out what you should be looking out for over the next couple of weeks…

Latest currency news

It’s been a volatile two weeks for the pound, with markets having plenty to react to. GBP/EUR struck a high of €1.1491, but quickly slumped again, reaching a low of €1.1297.

After GBP/USD hit a high of US$1.3453 the pairing swiftly dropped to a low of US$1.3306, although the exchange rate has now recovered much of its losses.

EUR/GBP slumped to £0.8763 after the latest European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, but quickly rebounded to a high of £0.8851. EUR/USD trended somewhat more calmly between a high of US$1.1847 and a low of US$1.1722.

What’s been happening?

There has been plenty on the economic, political and monetary fronts to keep the pound on volatile form these past couple of weeks.

The Bank of England (BoE) opted to keep interest rates frozen at 0.5%. While this was largely expected, the fact not one policymaker voted for another round of tightening showed the BoE was feeling very cautious about the economy indeed.

Markets didn’t have long to dwell on the monetary policy outlook, however, as there was plenty happening with regards to Brexit to keep Sterling volatile.

With the EU having set Friday 8th as the deadline for agreeing issues such as the Brexit divorce bill and the Irish border in order for the European Council to vote in favour of beginning trade negotiations.

It seemed that, after months of fretting over the divorce bill, it could have been the Irish border that derailed the Brexit timetable permanently.

The UK made some concessions, but these were swiftly blocked by Northern Ireland’s DUP, who Theresa May has to keep on side in order to hold a majority in Parliament.

Then, last Friday, the European Council agreed that sufficient progress had been made in talks and that discussions on trade could begin.

Sterling wasn’t happy, however, after many officials warned that this was going to be much harder than the initial phase of talks.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker also soured appetite for the pound after stating that talks on trade wouldn’t start until around March.

After striking a six-month high on the 8th after the Irish border issues were resolved, GBP/EUR quickly tumbled and is now back around the levels seen a fortnight ago.

The euro had hit a one-week low after the latest European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, which gave no new details about when the quantitative easing programme may end.

Policymakers also kept their inflation projections sluggish, despite being upbeat about the Eurozone economy, suggesting monetary tightening is still a long way away.

GBP/USD spiked last week after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) delivered the expected interest rate hike.

Markets had prepared for this, so the move created a good opportunity to sell USD, driving the price lower.

At the same time, the FOMC revised its growth and employment forecasts up – but left its inflation projections unchanged.

What do you need to look out for?

The pace of data and other developments scheduled over the coming days is starting to slow now as the Christmas break approaches, but there will still be some points of interest.

Trading may grow thinner as the days go by, but events such as a speech from BoE Governor Mark Carney on the 20th, US third-quarter GDP on the 21st and personal consumption expenditure figures on the 22nd will ensure things don’t get too calm.

Political developments are likely to cause friction as well. There could still be plenty of developments with regards to Brexit to unsettle the Pound, especially as the Cabinet is today beginning to discuss its aims for the second phase of negotiations.

US President Donald Trump is getting closer to being able to implement his tax reform plans; indications more progress is being made would support USD and weaken EUR.

At Currencies Direct we’re here to talk currency whenever you need us, so get in touch if you want to know more about the latest news or how it could impact your currency transfers.

Since 1996 we’ve helped more than 150,000 customers with their currency transfers, just pop into your local Currencies Direct branch or give us a call to find out more.

Entrevista a Rocio Alcantara Moreno, la nueva incorporacion al equipo Comercial de Inmobiliaria Acapulco.

Volvemos con las entrevista al personal de Inmobiliaria Acapulco, es algo que no gusta porque asi podeis conocer un poco las opiniones de las personas que trabajamos en Acapulco así que esta vez vamos a conocer a la nueva incorporación al equipo comercial, Rocio Alcantara Moreno. Comenzamos con las preguntas:


  • ¿ Desde hace cuento tiempo trabajas en Inmobiliaria Acapulco? Una semana
  • ¿Por qué decidiste entrar en el negocio inmobiliario? Por mi experiencia previa y porque me parece un negocio en el que se trabajan campos diferentes, favoreciendo el no caer en la monotonía, por el contacto personal con los clientes y la variedad de trámites a desarrollar.
  • ¿Qué es lo que crees que Inmobiliaria Acapulco ofrece a los clientes que el resto de inmobiliarias no ofrece? Un trato más personal, cuida la relación con el cliente de una forma excepcional.
  • ¿Qué es lo que más te gusta de trabajar en Inmobiliaria Acapulco? El compañerismo
  • Al trabajar en Inmobiliaria Acapulco has podido contribuir a que muchas de tus clientes hayan optado a una vida mejor gracias a tu trabajo ¿Qué es lo que les ofrecéis ? Servicio de calidad y asesoramiento completo, siempre cuidando la relación personal con el cliente ¿Que es lo que podéis aportar a un cliente para que su vida sea mejor? Honestidad, simpatía y disposición a la resolución de cualquier problema que pueda surgir durante la relación comercial.
  • ¿Cómo ves el mercado inmobiliario actual y como crees que son las previsiones? Mercado en crecimiento, creo que los dos próximos años seguirá en la misma tónica.
  • ¿Qué zonas ves con más posibilidades? Actualmente La Cala de Mijas está en expansión y hay un aumento de la demanda.
  • Toca una pregunta personal, en tu zona de influencia ¿Cúal es esa zona sobre la que sientes predilección y la recomendarías sin lugar a dudas a todo el mundo? Parque Doña Sofía ¿Por qué? Tiene muy buen acceso a la autovía, cerca de comercios y del centro y por supuesto de la playa. Hay propiedades a precios competitivos.
  • Cada día vemos más la presencia de las inmobiliarias en el terreno digital, Internet para vosotros ha sido un boom increíble ¿Qué opinas sobre las nuevas tecnologías aplicadas al sector inmobiliario? Como para cualquier otro sector son imprescindibles, tenemos que avanzar al mismo ritmo que avanza la vida en general. Las nuevas tecnologías nos permiten acceder a un público más amplio y a que la publicidad sea más efectiva.
  • Tras tanta polémica ¿qué opinas de plataformas o market places como Airbnb, hundredrooms o similares? Me parecen buenas iniciativas, tienen su público, pero siempre hay quien prefiere una atención personal y de tu a tu.
  • ¿Y sobre los hostels? Igualmente me parecen iniciativas creativas y las agencias tenemos que verlas como un empuje a reinventarnos y ofrecer servicios más exclusivos.
  • Piensa por un momento que yo soy un extranjero que está pensando en si venir a vivir a la Costa del Sol? Además del clima y la gastronomía, que 5 motivos me dirías para quedarme? La infraestructura de Málaga, moderna y funcional. Gran variedad de servicios de ocio y tiempo libre. Población cosmopolita y acogedora. Cultura y fiestas. Asequible para vivir el día a día.


  • Que zona de la Costa del Es aquella que no cambiaras por nada y la recomendarías sin lugar a dudas? Recomiendo la zona de El Faro, por sus playas, la tranquilidad y sus viviendas.Foto publi (2)

Pound climbs as UK begins to make progress in Brexit negotiations

Staying on top of the latest currency news can help you time your transfers more effectively, so find out what you should be looking out for over the next couple of weeks…

Latest currency news

Despite experiencing both peaks and troughs, the pound has been able to record gains overall versus the Euro and US dollar over the past fortnight. GBP/EUR hit a low of €1.1138 last week, but is now trending at a high of around €1.1417.

Meanwhile, GBP/USD exchange rates have risen from lows of €1.3516 to highs of €1.3548 just before the weekend.

EUR/GBP has fallen to a 20-week low of €0.8758 over the course of the last fortnight, while EUR/USD has been able to make and largely hold some modest gains and currently trends around US$1.1841.

What’s been happening?

Pound advances were hampered in mid-November by a series of gloomy economic developments.

Chancellor Philip Hammond delivered an uneventful budget on the 22nd, but the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) followed up by publishing some dire figures for productivity and wage growth.

Data later in the week showed that consumer confidence had plunged back to the low last seen immediately after the referendum.

However, Sterling was able to recover at the end of the week after Bank of England (BoE) member Silvana Tenreyro warned that markets had not considered the possibility Brexit may push interest rates higher rather than lower.

Things continued to improve last week, after it emerged that the UK government was likely to up the amount it was willing to pay for a Brexit divorce bill to around €50 billion.

Fears over the Irish border remained, however, but these have evaporated today after the UK government agreed to the EU’s terms for keeping the whole of Ireland under single market regulations to prevent the need for a hard customs border between Northern Ireland and Ireland.

Meanwhile, the euro has been hampered by some disappointing data figures, with Germany’s consumer confidence and inflation data softening the outlook for the Eurozone’s powerhouse economy.

EUR was dealt a significant blow on Friday when a study found that the euro had failed to deliver the benefits to the economies that had joined it, such as narrowing the extent to which their prosperity diverged.

Although the US dollar muddled along over the past two weeks on the back of sky-high interest rate hike bets, there were several turbulent moments.

GDP data last Wednesday showed a better-than-expected rate of growth, while today the US dollar is on strong form after the weekend saw the Senate finally approved a bill for tax reform.

What do you need to look out for?

Tomorrow’s UK services PMI will be a big release, given that it chronicles activity in the sector responsible for over 75% of economic growth.

After that, markets will have to wait until Friday for the next notable UK releases, with a slew of industrial, manufacturing and construction data accompanied by trade figures and followed by a GDP estimate.

The middle of next week is likely to see severe turbulence on the markets, thanks to the clustering of interest rate meetings and decisions from central banks.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces its latest decisions on monetary policy on Wednesday 13th, with the Bank of England (BoE) and European Central Bank (ECB) both publishing their latest policy conclusions on Thursday 14th.

GBP/EUR and GBP/USD will therefore being under notable pressure throughout the week, and that’s without even taking into consideration the likelihood of more news from the Brexit talks and US tax reform.

At Currencies Direct we’re here to talk currency whenever you need us, so get in touch if you want to know more about the latest news or how it could impact your currency transfers.

Since 1996 we’ve helped more than 150,000 customers with their currency transfers, just pop into your local Currencies Direct branch or give us a call to find out more.currencies direct 2

Cabinet chaos rocks pound, ECB pressures euro

In October politics was the driving force of euro movement, with the Catalan crisis and fallout from the German election keeping the common currency on its toes.
So far, November has proven just as politically charged, with chaos in the UK cabinet leading to concerns that Brexit negotiations may be derailed.
The euro, meanwhile, came under pressure thanks to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest policy meeting, while the US dollar remained robust thanks to developments in President Trump’s tax plans and the odds of the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates in December remaining over 90%.
Over the last four weeks the GBP/EUR exchange rate has been fluctuating between €1.1446 and €1.1084, with the pairing trading in the region of €1.1283 by the middle of November.
EUR/GBP, on the other hand, fell from a high of £0.9021 to a low of £0.8736 (recovering to £0.88 at the time of writing) while EUR/USD shifted between $1.1879 and $1.1557.
What’s been happening?
Towards the end of October the euro weakened in response to the ECB’s hotly anticipated interest rate decision. The central bank reduced the size of its bond buying programme, but also extended it to run until at least September of next year.
As interest rates aren’t expected to be adjusted until QE ends, the move was euro-negative.
The dovish long-term outlook for policy helped GBP/EUR march its way to an over 4-month high. However, the Bank of England (BoE) soon put paid to any Sterling strength.
While the BoE increased borrowing costs for the first time in a decade, the Monetary Policy Committee intimated that future changes to borrowing costs would be ‘gradual’ and to a ‘limited extent’ – leaving the pound to fall by as much as 2% against most of the majors.
Sterling recovered some ground on upbeat UK data, but political developments put paid to a sustained Sterling recovery.
Prime Minister Theresa May lost two cabinet ministers in the space of a week as scandal swirled round Westminster, and dark rumblings of a leadership challenge clouded the outlook for Brexit negotiations.
What do you need to look out for?
A continuation of the recent political dramas would, of course, weigh on the pound.
If Brexit negotiations are adversely affected by all the upheaval, GBP could fall to fresh multi-week lows.
Meanwhile, the strength of the US dollar could limit the euro’s upside potential as we march towards December’s Federal Reserve rate decision. As EUR/USD is the world’s most traded currency pairing, the euro tends weaken when the US dollar strengthens.
Unless something happens to dash hopes of a US rate hike taking place next month, the US dollar is likely to remain elevated, keeping the euro under pressure in the process.
At Currencies Direct we’re here to talk currency whenever you need us, so get in touch if you want to know more about the latest news or how it could impact your currency transfers.
Since 1996 we’ve helped more than 150,000 customers with their currency transfers, just pop into your local imagen currencies direct branch or give us a call to find out more.

Conoce al Equipo de Inmobiliaria Acapulco: Laura Bautista

Volvemos con las entrevista al personal de Inmobiliaria Acapulco, es algo que no gusta porque asi podeis conocer un poco las opiniones de las personas que trabajamos en Acapulco así que esta vez vamos a conocer a Laura Bautista, responsable del departamento de contabilidad. Comenzamos con las preguntas: Continue reading

Descarga nuestra revista Inmobiliaria!!!!!

Dejamos en nuestro blog el ejemplar numero 10 de nuestra revista inmobiliaria, no dudes en descargarla haciendo click en el siguiente enlace: Acapulcooctubrenoviembrediciembre

Inversión Inmobiliaria en La Costa del Sol

Nuevos incrementos de obras nuevas, explican las claves de la hermosa y paradisíaca Costa del Sol para optar por comprar o alquilar viviendas. 

Buenas razones para invertir en la Costa del Sol

El auge del mercado inmobiliario en las regiones costeras de España y el incremento de las construcciones, después de la burbuja creada en 2007, se deben a la recuperación del sector.

Toda la Costa del Sol día a día se consolida como demanda de ventas, tanto de pisos en las urbanizaciones, como de casas, chalets, locales y propiedades en general.

Desde fuera de España se valora al alza esta zona con hermosas playas y clima cálido, experimentando significativos aumentos por la reactivación económica del ambiente hostelero. Ante ello, muchas consultoras inmobiliarias presentan un análisis favorable desde el año 2015 en la Costa del Sol.

El mercado residencial ha crecido con las obras nuevas en más de un 35%, recuperándose hasta llegar a un 4,91% con un mayor número de viviendas que se ofrecen y compran, respecto a períodos anteriores.

El comportamiento de los compradores internacionales, especialmente los británicos, seguidos por Suecia, Francia, Bélgica y otros países europeos alcanza el 15,6% y Rusia demanda cada día más las propiedades de esta región del sur de nuestro territorio.

Estepona y Marbella son los municipios elegidos como referentes de la gestión urbanística, representan un área de influencia de notable interés.

¿Por qué aumentan las promociones de viviendas?

En la Costa del Sol crece de forma constante la oferta de compra y alquiler de pisos o viviendas unifamiliares, comercializándose en la actualidad un 69% de las promociones nuevas.

Tendencias positivas respaldan el crecimiento de las segundas residencias en la Costa del Sol, mientras años anteriores era reducida.

Muchos turistas eligen esta zona costera para descansar y relajarse en un ambiente ideal con temperaturas cálidas todo el año, excelente gastronomía, valores históricos y culturales, festividades, exposiciones, festivales internacionales, entre otras alternativas que convierten en el lugar perfecto para establecerse comprando bienes raíces.

En la recuperación inmobiliaria Marbella y las poblaciones vecinas van por delante y el 80% de los extranjeros invierten en estos ambientes, frente al resto de España.

Estabilidad y precios bajos entre el 10 o15%, siguen por delante respecto a la media nacional con precios competitivos para una inversión segura.

¡Proyectos constantes atraen financiación e inversiones a este mercado y se posiciona como la mejor zona para inversores extranjeros o españoles!

Simplify your currency transfers

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In fact, whatever your currency requirement, we can help!

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We don’t see any reason why moving currency from A to B should be complicated, so we make sure transfers are flexible, seamless and swift.

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Anything else you need to know?

Fund security is a serious business, so we take it seriously.

Meet The Team: Emilio Garcia Goldsmith

How long have you been running the Inmobiliaria Acapulco?

5 years being the manager of Inmobiliaria Acapulco and 10 years in comercial sales.

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